Bond traders price in Fed rate hike by December as inflation lingers
What's next: Markets see little chance of a July move but increasingly favor a quarter-point hike in September or October.
Subject
#Kevin Warsh
Fed Chair Warsh vows inflation retreat in first House testimony
What's next: Warsh returns to Capitol on Wednesday for Senate testimony after defending the Fed's independence and 2% inflation goal.
Fed Chair Warsh pushes 5 reviews, vows end to inflation surge
What's new: Warsh used his first semiannual House testimony to defend a broader overhaul of Fed policy, data and communications.
Fed's Warsh pushes inflation overhaul in first House testimony
What's new: Two months into the job, he said five Fed task forces are reviewing communications, technology, the balance sheet, data and inflation policy.
US June inflation cooled to 3.5% as energy prices fell
What's next: Traders cut the odds of a September Fed rate hike after core CPI came in flat for the month at 2.6% year over year.
Warsh holds off on rate signal as US inflation cools to 3.5%
What's next: The Fed meets July 28-29 as policymakers remain split over whether to raise, hold or cut rates.
Bloomberg, PBS NewsHour +1
US June inflation slowed to 3.5% as gasoline prices fell
What's next: Rising oil prices after renewed Middle East fighting could reverse the relief and keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
PBS NewsHour, ABC News +1
10-year Treasury yield drops to 4.55% after cooler June CPI
What's new: Traders cut the odds of a July Fed rate hike to 17% from 42%, though September tightening is still seen as more likely.
Bloomberg, CNBC
Fed minutes show split on rates as some officials saw case for hike
What's new: Futures kept pricing in a possible September increase even after the June 16-17 meeting ended with rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
Bullish US dollar bets hit $40 billion, highest in over a decade
Why it matters: Traders now expect at least one Fed rate hike this year after the dollar climbed 2% in June.
US core PCE inflation hit 3.4% in May, highest since 2023
Why it matters: The 4.1% headline reading and stronger consumer spending kept rate-hike expectations alive for later this year.
CNBC, ABC News +1
Gold steadies near $4,000 after sliding into bear market
Why it matters: A stronger dollar and higher-rate bets have pushed bullion more than 20% below its January peak near $5,600.
Traders price 67% odds of a September Fed rate hike after Warsh
What's new: July hike odds jumped to about one-in-three, while stocks initially fell and 2-year Treasury yields surged.
Bloomberg, MarketWatch
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Warsh starts overhaul
What's new: The new chair set up task forces on inflation, data, jobs, communications and the balance sheet while withholding his own rate forecast.
The New York Times, CNBC
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%, drops 2026 cut outlook
What's new: Officials now pencil in a 3.8% year-end rate and split 9-8 over whether the next move is a hike or no change.
Bloomberg, The New York Times
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Warsh’s first meeting as chair
What’s new: Fed projections showed some officials expect a rate hike by year-end, even as all 12 voting members backed no change.
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Warsh starts overhaul
What's new: Warsh set up task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data, jobs and the inflation framework.
Wall Street drops as Fed holds rates, signals 2026 hike risk
What's new: Fed projections showed nine officials expect at least one rate increase by the end of 2026.
Gold drops 2.6% after Fed signals possible rate hikes in 2026
Why it matters: Higher-for-longer US rates and inflation tied to the Iran conflict add pressure on non-yielding bullion.
Warsh’s inflation stance lifts long Treasuries, dims rate-cut bets
What’s new: Jeffrey Gundlach said the Fed chair’s price-stability push makes aggressive easing less likely and boosts the case for long bonds.
Asian stocks slip as Fed decision nears and tech shares retreat
Why it matters: Traders are split between rate cuts and hikes, while lower oil prices have eased some inflation fears.
Fed set to hold rates as Warsh faces inflation test in week 3
Why it matters: Investors are betting on a rate hike by December as rising oil prices threaten to keep inflation elevated.
US inflation hit 4.2% in May, highest annual rate since 2023
Why it matters: Hotter prices before next week's Fed meeting could delay rate cuts and raise the risk of a hike later this year.
Bloomberg, The New York Times
Trump pressed Fed to cut rates as traders priced in a 2026 hike
What's next: Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting on June 16-17 after May payrolls rose 172,000 and Treasury prices fell.
Bloomberg, The Business Times (Singapore)
S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as 172,000 US jobs dim Fed cut hopes
What's new: Traders cut bets on a June rate cut and raised the odds of a Fed hike by the end of 2026 after the payrolls report.
Strong US jobs data push Fed rate cuts further out of reach
What's new: Traders sharply reduced odds of a June cut and priced in roughly a 70% chance of a hike by late 2026.
Earlier: US adds 172,000 jobs in May, pushing Fed rate cuts further backSeries: United States · May 2026 Jobs Report · 4 chapters since Jun 5