Gold rebounds to $4,033 as traders test key $4,000 support
Why it matters: Middle East fighting and oil swings could lift inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
Subject
#Federal Reserve
Gold climbs to $4,033 as Middle East war keeps inflation in focus
Why it matters: Traders are weighing higher energy costs against soft US data and the risk of further Federal Reserve tightening.
Gold holds near $4,000 as US-Iran clashes push Brent above $90
Why it matters: Higher oil prices are reviving inflation fears and keeping at least one Fed rate hike this year in play.
Bond traders price in Fed rate hike by December as inflation lingers
What's next: Markets see little chance of a July move but increasingly favor a quarter-point hike in September or October.
Ex-Fed adviser gets 38 months for lying in China secrets probe
Why it matters: Prosecutors said advance Fed rate information could have aided trading in China’s roughly $1.5 trillion in US Treasurys.
Bloomberg, The Straits Times +2
Europe stocks rise 0.2% as soft US inflation eases Fed fears
What's new: Traders cut the odds of a July Fed rate hike to about 10% from 35% before the inflation report.
Fed Chair Warsh vows inflation retreat in first House testimony
What's next: Warsh returns to Capitol on Wednesday for Senate testimony after defending the Fed's independence and 2% inflation goal.
Fed Chair Warsh pushes 5 reviews, vows end to inflation surge
What's new: Warsh used his first semiannual House testimony to defend a broader overhaul of Fed policy, data and communications.
Fed's Warsh pushes inflation overhaul in first House testimony
What's new: Two months into the job, he said five Fed task forces are reviewing communications, technology, the balance sheet, data and inflation policy.
US June inflation cooled to 3.5% as energy prices fell
What's next: Traders cut the odds of a September Fed rate hike after core CPI came in flat for the month at 2.6% year over year.
Oil jumps 4% as US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz shipping
Why it matters: Brent rose above $79, vessel traffic through the strait fell to a five-week low and traders revived Fed hike bets.
Warsh holds off on rate signal as US inflation cools to 3.5%
What's next: The Fed meets July 28-29 as policymakers remain split over whether to raise, hold or cut rates.
Bloomberg, PBS NewsHour +1
US June inflation slowed to 3.5% as gasoline prices fell
What's next: Rising oil prices after renewed Middle East fighting could reverse the relief and keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
PBS NewsHour, ABC News +1
10-year Treasury yield drops to 4.55% after cooler June CPI
What's new: Traders cut the odds of a July Fed rate hike to 17% from 42%, though September tightening is still seen as more likely.
Bloomberg, CNBC
Fed minutes show split on rates as some officials saw case for hike
What's new: Futures kept pricing in a possible September increase even after the June 16-17 meeting ended with rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
Bullish US dollar bets hit $40 billion, highest in over a decade
Why it matters: Traders now expect at least one Fed rate hike this year after the dollar climbed 2% in June.
US core PCE inflation hit 3.4% in May, highest since 2023
Why it matters: The 4.1% headline reading and stronger consumer spending kept rate-hike expectations alive for later this year.
CNBC, ABC News +1
Fed stress test found 32 big US banks could absorb $708 billion
What's next: The results will not change bank capital buffers until 2027 as regulators rework the stress-test model.
The Business Times (Singapore), CNBC
Gold steadies near $4,000 after sliding into bear market
Why it matters: A stronger dollar and higher-rate bets have pushed bullion more than 20% below its January peak near $5,600.
JPMorgan launches $50 billion buyback after Fed bank stress test
What's new: Goldman, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley also lifted payouts after all 32 large banks cleared the Fed review.
Bloomberg, CNBC
Dollar hits 1-year high as Fed hike bets build, yen nears 1986 low
What's new: Futures imply an 85% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike by September, while Japan weighs possible currency intervention.
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan dies at 100 in New York
Why it matters: Greenspan led the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006 and shaped US monetary policy through booms, crashes and inflation fights.
BBC News (World), The New York Times +6
Thai baht hits 1-year low at 33.09 per US dollar ahead of BOT decision
Why it matters: Traders expect the Federal Reserve to widen its rate lead as Thailand's central bank is seen holding at 1%.
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan dies at 100
Why it matters: Greenspan led the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, shaping US monetary policy through booms, crashes and the dot-com era.
The New York Times, Bloomberg +2
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan dies at 100 in Washington
Why it matters: Greenspan led the Federal Reserve for 18 years, and his policies shaped debates after the 2008 financial crisis.
Republika, The Hill
Singapore dollar seen rising 2.4% by year-end despite Fed hike bets
What's next: May inflation data due June 23 could shape a July MAS tightening move that would support the currency.
Traders price 67% odds of a September Fed rate hike after Warsh
What's new: July hike odds jumped to about one-in-three, while stocks initially fell and 2-year Treasury yields surged.
Bloomberg, MarketWatch
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Warsh starts overhaul
What's new: The new chair set up task forces on inflation, data, jobs, communications and the balance sheet while withholding his own rate forecast.
The New York Times, CNBC
Yen hits 160.8 per dollar, reviving Japan intervention fears
What's new: The slide came after a hawkish Fed signal, even after Japan spent a record 11.7 trillion yen on support last month.
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%, drops 2026 cut outlook
What's new: Officials now pencil in a 3.8% year-end rate and split 9-8 over whether the next move is a hike or no change.
Bloomberg, The New York Times
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Warsh’s first meeting as chair
What’s new: Fed projections showed some officials expect a rate hike by year-end, even as all 12 voting members backed no change.
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Warsh starts overhaul
What's new: Warsh set up task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data, jobs and the inflation framework.
Wall Street drops as Fed holds rates, signals 2026 hike risk
What's new: Fed projections showed nine officials expect at least one rate increase by the end of 2026.
Gold drops 2.6% after Fed signals possible rate hikes in 2026
Why it matters: Higher-for-longer US rates and inflation tied to the Iran conflict add pressure on non-yielding bullion.
Warsh’s inflation stance lifts long Treasuries, dims rate-cut bets
What’s new: Jeffrey Gundlach said the Fed chair’s price-stability push makes aggressive easing less likely and boosts the case for long bonds.
PBOC narrows rate corridor, points China toward overnight benchmark
Why it matters: Tighter control of overnight funding costs could sharpen how China transmits monetary policy through banks and markets.
Bloomberg, The Business Times (Singapore)
Asian stocks slip as Fed decision nears and tech shares retreat
Why it matters: Traders are split between rate cuts and hikes, while lower oil prices have eased some inflation fears.
Asian stocks slip as Hormuz reopening shifts focus to central banks
What's next: Traders are watching rate decisions in Australia, Japan and the US after oil eased and the relief rally lost steam.
Bloomberg, The Business Times (Singapore)
Fed set to hold rates as Warsh faces inflation test in week 3
Why it matters: Investors are betting on a rate hike by December as rising oil prices threaten to keep inflation elevated.
SpaceX IPO opens Friday with options set to start trading June 16
What's new: Traders expect unusually wide early options markets as investors lack a clear hedge for the space company.
Bloomberg, BBC News (World) +5
Rupiah strengthens to Rp17.930 on BI-Rate at 5.50 percent
Markets see the rate increase as drawing foreign interest, even as the dollar stays firm after stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data.
Antara News, Republika +1
Gold sinks to 6-month low as Fed hike fears outweigh Iran war
What's new: Traders now price a 67% chance of a US rate hike by December as oil-driven inflation clouds the outlook.
US jobless claims rise 4,000 to 229,000, topping forecasts
What's new: Filings hit their highest level since early February, though unemployment stayed at 4.3% and May hiring remained solid.
ABC News, MarketWatch
US wholesale prices jumped 1.1% in May as energy costs surged
Why it matters: The report strengthens expectations that the Fed will hold rates next week, with traders no longer pricing any 2026 cuts.
US inflation hit 4.2% in May, highest annual rate since 2023
Why it matters: Hotter prices before next week's Fed meeting could delay rate cuts and raise the risk of a hike later this year.
Bloomberg, The New York Times
US inflation hit 4.2% in May, highest in 3 years
Why it matters: Surging fuel costs make a Federal Reserve rate cut less likely and have outpaced wage growth, squeezing households.
Oil tops $92, Asian stocks fall after new US strikes on Iran
Why it matters: traders now await US inflation data, with markets pricing in a December Fed rate hike as energy costs rise.
The New York Times, Bloomberg +2
Oil tops $92, Asian stocks fall after fresh US strikes on Iran
Why it matters: Brent traded at $92.29 and investors now await US inflation data that could shape Federal Reserve rate expectations.
US household financial stress hits highest level since 2022
What's next: May CPI data arrives Wednesday, with markets expecting the Fed to hold rates on June 17 and raising odds of a hike later this year.
Asia stocks slide as tech sell-off sends Kospi down 8.8%
Why it matters: The drop spilled from US AI shares, and South Korea's plunge was sharp enough to trigger a 20-minute circuit breaker.
Bloomberg, The Business Times (Singapore)
Trump pressed Fed to cut rates as traders priced in a 2026 hike
What's next: Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting on June 16-17 after May payrolls rose 172,000 and Treasury prices fell.
Bloomberg, The Business Times (Singapore)
Tech rout, Bitcoin slide test demand ahead of SpaceX IPO
Why it matters: A 5% Nasdaq 100 drop and Bitcoin falling below $60,000 could drain retail cash from what may be a record IPO.
Asian authorities move to defend currencies as dollar pressure mounts
Why it matters: The won and rupiah led regional losses as officials in South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, India and the Philippines stepped up defenses.
US added 172,000 jobs in May as unemployment held at 4.3%
Why it matters: stronger hiring and upward revisions for March and April reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon.
Bloomberg, NPR +2
S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as 172,000 US jobs dim Fed cut hopes
What's new: Traders cut bets on a June rate cut and raised the odds of a Fed hike by the end of 2026 after the payrolls report.
Nasdaq posts biggest drop since April 2025 as chip stocks sink
Why it matters: A stronger-than-expected May jobs report pushed traders to price in a 42.7% chance of a Fed rate hike by December.
Bloomberg, The Business Times (Singapore)
S&P 500, Nasdaq open lower as strong US jobs data dents chip stocks
Why it matters: firmer hiring lifted expectations for tighter Fed policy, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average still edged up 0.09%.
US May payrolls seen slowing to 80,000 as layoffs pick up
Why it matters: A weak reading could sharpen bets on Fed rate cuts as economists see unemployment holding at 4.3%.
Bloomberg, CNBC