Fed faces Oct. 28 rates call as markets price hold, inflation stays hot

The Federal Reserve heads into its Oct. 28 rate decision with markets overwhelmingly expecting no change, even as September inflation came in above forecasts and oil prices climbed. The benchmark rate now sits at 3.75% to 4%, and fed funds futures imply a roughly 90% to 95% chance the central bank holds steady this week. The debate has sharpened because higher energy costs are feeding broader price pressures and testing confidence that policymakers are moving forcefully enough. Bank of America Global Research said the case for an October increase has strengthened, but warned either outcome could unsettle investors: a hike could raise fears of overtightening, while a hold could invite questions about the Fed's resolve.