ITB warns strong El Nino through 2027 could trigger drought
That could delay the rainy season, cut December-February rainfall, and raise wildfire and water-food risks.
The Climate Change Center at Institut Teknologi Bandung warned that El Nino in 2026-2027, now classified as strong, could last eight to nine months and even intensify to very strong through January 2027. The condition could trigger a more severe drought, close to the 1997-1998 episode, especially if it coincides with the peak dry season in August-September 2026.
PPI ITB head Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso said the threat would grow if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerges in September-December 2026, as it could reduce rainfall in western Indonesia. BMKG also recorded 5,690 fire hotspots in Indonesia through Aug. 2, with the largest concentrations in West Kalimantan, South Papua and Riau. ITB and BMKG urged a shift from emergency response to risk-based mitigation to protect water and food supplies and curb wildfires.