BMKG: Strong El Nino Hits Indonesia, May Last Into 2027

BMKG said Indonesia has entered a strong El Nino phase and projected the conditions would last at least through early Q1 2027. BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said the intensity could peak alongside a drier-than-normal dry season, with a possible positive IOD in September-December 2026. By mid-July, 509 Zona Musim, or 54.5 percent of Indonesia's land area, had entered the dry season, including large areas in Java, Sumatera, Kalimantan and Papua. BMKG forecast the dry-season peak would fall mostly in August and September, with 437 ZOM facing a longer dry season. The impact would raise the threat of extreme drought and forest and land fires; BMKG recorded 4,900 hotspots through late July. The government is preparing weather modification operations and steps to secure water supplies in reservoirs.