Polls put Democrats near House flip as Senate races tighten
Why it matters: Forecasts and betting markets now give Democrats strong odds in the House, but recent polling misses leave Election Day uncertain.
Democrats entered the final stretch of the 2026 US midterms with polling leads in enough House districts to retake the chamber and with several Senate contests effectively tied. Recent surveys cited by BBC and Fox show Democratic candidates competitive or ahead in states including Texas, Kansas, Maine, Michigan and South Carolina, even in places Donald Trump carried comfortably in 2024. But both reports also stressed that US polling has missed Republican strength in recent cycles, especially when Trump has been on the ballot. Ipsos Public Affairs President Clifford Young told the BBC that reaching voters has become harder as Americans screen calls and decline to participate, raising the risk that conservative voters are undercounted.