GREAT Institute projects RI economy to grow 5.2%-5.4% in Q3
The forecast is supported by manufacturing PMI in expansion, Rp528.7 trillion in investment and a 23.2% rise in investment loans.
GREAT Institute projects Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2026 at 5.2%-5.4% year on year. The forecast is based on a series of indicators through July-September showing production and domestic demand still moving. In manufacturing, Bank Indonesia's PMI stood at 52.28 and S&P Global PMI at 52.4, both still in expansion territory. Investment also rose 7.6% to Rp528.7 trillion, accompanied by 23.20% growth in investment loans and 11.89% in working capital loans. On mobility, domestic tourist trips rose 9.28% and arrivals of foreign tourists increased 4.63%. GREAT Institute researcher Adhamaski Pangeran said the combination of indicators showed the national economy's fundamentals remained resilient amid global dynamics, with 2026 growth projected in the 5.3%-5.6% range.