2026 El Nino May Pressure Food Supplies, Inflation in Southeast Asia
WMO projects El Nino could form before August and last through at least November 2026, with rice output at risk of falling 2%-8%.
The World Meteorological Organization projects El Nino could form before August 2026 and last at least through November, raising the risk of hotter weather and weaker monsoon rains in Southeast Asia. The effects could spread to food supplies and inflation as the region still faces surging energy, transport and food costs. Paul Teng, a researcher at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, said rice is likely to be the hardest-hit commodity because of lower rainfall and heat stress, especially in Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia. He estimated regional rice production could fall about 2% to 8% from normal levels. Palm oil is also at risk, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, which supply about 85% of global demand.