World Bank forecasts Indonesia's economy to grow 5.0% in 2026
The 2027-2028 outlook rises to 5.2%, but depends on structural reforms and easing global pressures.
The World Bank projects Indonesia's economic growth will slow to 5.0% in 2026, slightly lower as external pressures weigh on investment and exports. The forecast appears in the June 2026 edition of the Indonesia Economic Prospects report. The World Bank expects household consumption to continue growing at about 5.0% with support from fiscal stimulus, while government consumption rises 8.7%. But the institution warned that reliance on state spending carries risks because fiscal room is limited and subsidy costs are rising. If the conflict in the Middle East continues through the end of 2026, disruptions to oil markets and shipping could keep Brent prices around US$ 94 per barrel. For 2027-2028, growth is projected to recover to 5.2% if structural reforms, deregulation and faster investment through Danantara move ahead.