US May payrolls seen slowing to 80,000 as layoffs pick up
Why it matters: A weak reading could sharpen bets on Fed rate cuts as economists see unemployment holding at 4.3%.
Economists expect the May US jobs report on Friday to show hiring slowed sharply, with Dow Jones consensus at 80,000 new nonfarm payrolls after 115,000 in April. Bloomberg Economics expects a solid increase, but several Wall Street forecasts are weaker, including 60,000 from Goldman Sachs, 50,000 from EY-Parthenon and 20,000 from Vanguard. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%. Recent data point to a labor market losing momentum: Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 97,006 planned job cuts in May, up 16% from April and the highest for that month since 2020, while AI-related cuts reached 38,242. Job openings rose in April, but quits fell to their lowest level since August 2020, underscoring what Indeed Hiring Lab described as a low-hire, low-fire market.