NOAA flags El Nino as global heat risks rise into late 2026
Why it matters: Forecasters see a 63% chance of a very strong event by November-January, raising risks of drought, crop losses and higher food prices.
El Nino conditions have emerged in the tropical Pacific, US forecasters said June 11, with the warming pattern expected to strengthen through the end of 2026 and potentially reach historic intensity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have moved above normal, meeting its threshold for El Nino. The agency put the odds of a very strong event at 63% for November through January. Major El Nino episodes can shift rainfall and storm tracks worldwide, often bringing drought to parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia while disrupting India’s monsoon. Scientists also warn the pattern could add to human-driven warming and push global temperatures even higher next year.