NOAA declares El Niño, raising risk of global heat extremes
What's new: NOAA sees a 63% chance of a very strong event by winter, which could amplify heat, crop losses and weather shocks into 2027.
El Niño is now underway in the tropical Pacific after sea-surface temperatures rose above the threshold used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, setting up a higher risk of global heat and disruptive weather. NOAA said ocean warming and shifting winds show the atmosphere is now responding, a key sign the pattern has taken hold. Its June outlook puts the chance of a very strong El Niño at 63% during November through January, a level that would place it among the biggest events recorded since 1950. Scientists say the pattern, layered on top of long-term human-caused warming, could help drive another record-hot year, most likely in 2027, while straining food supplies and economies in some regions.