Latvia intelligence sees Russian hybrid attack risk on Baltics, Poland
Riga sees the nearest threat as a Kremlin miscalculation that could test NATO's resolve, not a full-scale war.
Latvia intelligence warned that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland to pressure NATO members into scaling back support for Ukraine. In the assessment, the most likely form of attack would not be a conventional invasion, but a hybrid strike such as missiles, drones, cyberattacks or disruption of critical infrastructure.
Latvia judges that Moscow is not yet capable of waging a full-scale war against NATO and would need three to five years to rebuild that capability, even if the war in Ukraine ends. The biggest risk, however, is a miscalculation in the Kremlin. Latvia intelligence says Vladimir Putin is becoming more isolated and is receiving assessments tailored to his wishes. The warning echoes concerns from Polish officials, including Marcin Bosacki, who said Russia's hybrid war on NATO's eastern flank is already underway.