BMKG raises odds of strong El Nino, first planting may slip
New: odds of a moderate El Nino have reached 98 percent and a strong event 62 percent, well above prior forecasts below 20 percent.
BMKG raised its forecast for the chance of a strong El Nino in 2026 to 62 percent from less than 20 percent previously and said the first planting season could be delayed. BMKG climatology deputy Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific have remained beyond neutral levels for five five-day periods, indicating El Nino is likely to activate soon and persist until early 2027. BMKG also put the odds of a moderate El Nino at 98 percent. The impact is expected to suppress rainfall in Indonesia from June 2026 to January 2027, bringing a drier and longer dry season in many areas. Even so, BMKG said the rainy season, which has started to expand since October, especially in western Indonesia, could still support farm water needs, while December rainfall in many regions is expected to fall in the medium to high category.