BMKG: 2026 El Nino Is Strong, Dry Season at Risk
ENSO is now at +1.59, with the worst impact expected in NTT, NTB, Bali, Java and southern Sumatra through October.
BMKG said El Nino 2026 has entered the strong category, with the ENSO index at +1.59 and still capable of intensifying to very strong, raising the risk of a drier and longer dry season in several parts of Indonesia. BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani said monitoring in the May-July period showed the phenomenon strengthening after it was previously projected to be moderate since March. WMO on 2 June 2026 also declared El Nino active. BMKG expects rainfall in August-September to fall in the low to very low category, especially in areas south of the equator such as Nusa Tenggara Timur, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Bali, Java Island and southern Sumatera. The impact is expected to begin easing in mid-October as the rainy season arrives, although El Nino could persist until around May 2027.